The Week Ahead: BHP expected to unearth record earnings
Tuesday, Aug 21, 2007
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BHP Billiton, one of the world's biggest mining companies, is widely expected to announce record earnings and cash flows on the back of continued commodity price strength. Surging demand from China and India for copper, nickel, aluminium and iron ore should make those divisions the highlights of the British-Australian conglomerate's results.
Paul Singer, an equity analyst at Barclays Capital, cites the only possible worry being the cost side "following high reported costs from other mining companies". Any outlook comments should be relatively positive. As for more information regarding the oft-rumoured further consolidation in the industry, Singer said "specific comments are unlikely". Barclays Capital is expecting BHP Billiton's profits to be up 14 per cent.
TODAY: A vulnerable protagonist of a stock market slump would appear to be the speciality white-collar recruitment firm Michael Page. Despite its shares in the UK having been hit particularly hard in recent weeks - falling 24 per cent since the beginning of July - analysts are expecting the company to provide a generally optimistic outlook for the rest of the year to reassure investors underlying fundamentals remain strong.
The Singapore-based firm has seen tremendous organic growth in the past few years in all sectors, and will be anxious to point out that its Europe, Middle East and Africa sector has grown 52 per cent and its Americas branch is 75 per cent bigger. An analyst from Landsbanki Securities says with the group having been "unreservedly bullish in recent months, any sign of caution will hit the company hard".
He says the recruitment sector still has two or three good years in this current cycle and has a buy recommendation on the stock. The underlying reason is the company's strength in niche recruitment sectors where there is a supply deficit across all its geographic markets. Evolution Securities' Hector Forsyth expects Michael Page to post first-half profits up 50 per cent to £67m, and revenue to be up 36 per cent to £226m.
The specialist insurer Hiscox is expected to announce a 45 per cent jump in half-year profits after a robust performance from its catastrophe insurance division. The Bermuda-based broker underwrites a range of personal and commercial risks mostly through Lloyd's of London. After Hurricane Katrina, prices in the catastrophe sector of insurance and reinsurance have remained high, and in the group's June trading update they cited it as the "main driver" of their growth.
A consensus of seven estimates predicts pre-tax profit to be £89m.
Results: First half - Hiscox; Keller; Michael Page; Raymarine. First quarter - Workspace Group.
TOMORROW:
Although these are tricky times for the housing market, analysts believe there is no need to link US mortgage problems with a downturn in prospects for established UK companies such asPersimmon.
Barclays Capital analyst Roddy Wallace expects their results to show profits up from £566m to £646m, with a positive outlook statement. The integration with Westbury has gone well and should aid Persimmon, which has a strong track record of organic growth.
Analysts at Numis expect the Glasgow-based engineering company Weir Group to deliver a very strong set of results, "driven by continued strength in its major end markets, namely oil, gas, power and mining". Although the stock is trading at an 18 per cent premium to the sector, he views it as being fully justified, especially after the company's acquisition in June of SPM Flow Control, the US oil well pump manufacturer, for $653m (£330m). Analyst Niranjan Aiyagari of UBS expects pre-tax profit of £41m.
Results: First Half - Weir Group; Brixton; Persimmon.
WEDNESDAY: Results:Full year - BHP Billiton. First half - Gibbs & Dandy; IQE.
THURSDAY: Rentokil Initial has expanded from its days of controlling deathwatch beetle infestations in Westminster Hall in the 1920s. Now a business services company in sectors ranging from interior plants landscaping to commercial laundry supply, keeping such a diverse group cohesive has proved problematic. Speculation continues it will follow through with a break-up.
But Evolution Securities analyst Andrew Drake said: "I doubt a split up. The company has already sold off the more extraneous businesses, and there is some coherence of the current elements."
He remains optimistic about the group, and while the results should show a decrease in pre-tax profits - £80m versus last year's £103m - this generally reflects the "awful lot of remedial work remodelling the business and its products. But we are starting to see the benefits of that work".