ABARE forecasts 2008 aluminium price to slide by 16%...

ABARE, the Australian government commodities research body, is forecasting average aluminium prices to fall by 15.5% to $2,244/tonne in 2008 from an anticipated $2,655/t in 2007. The price forecast is based on an assessment that the global market will be in surplus to the tune of 350,000t this year and 420,000t next year. Stocks are expected to rise to around 4.6 weeks of global consumption at the end of next year from 4.3 weeks at the end of this year. However, ABARE makes the important point that "this is relatively modest compared with the long run average of around 7 weeks of world consumption and is reflective of continued strong consumption growth, particularly in China."