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Asia Metals-China copper premiums down, steady elsewhere in Asia

Saturday, Jul 11, 2009
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* Asia copper premiums steady ex China, supplies tight * Traders dismiss talk of 100,000-tonne LME deliveries * Tin flat; Thai material comes to mkt, China buys slow By Nick Trevethan SINGAPORE, July 10 (Reuters) - Physical metals trade in China has slowed as the country, having driven global demand for most of the year, tries to digest the 1.4 million tonnes of copper it imported in the year to May. But physical premiums have held up elsewhere in Asia, underpinned by limited availability. Premiums for copper in Singapore warehouses were $110/$125 a tonne above the London Metal Exchange cash price , according to traders, more or less unchanged from June. In Shanghai, premiums for LME metal were down further at around $75/$80, from $100 or more last month, traders said, and others reported even lower levels. One trading firm source said he paid less than $40 a tonne for 1,500 tonnes of copper produced by Codelco. But that might be an exception rather than the rule, with two others reporting the market was closer to $80 for LME-grade material in the eastern Chinese city. "We are being offered Grade A in China for around $80 to $100 and in Singapore around $120. Stocks in the region are still fairly tight," a dealer in the citystate said. Stocks of copper in LME warehouses in Asia east of Suez are creeping up -- at 4,225 tonnes versus 2,250 tonnes a couple of months ago -- but at less than one day of Chinese consumption, remain tight. Cancelled warrants globally stand at around 5 percent of the total stock of just under 260,000 tonnes, versus more than 20 percent earlier this year. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10 percent this week to 54,167 tonnes from 59,980 tonnes. Talk in the market has swirled that more than 100,000 tonnes of copper may be stored in bonded warehouses in China, traders estimated. [ID:nHKG348438] But most have dismissed speculation that the material may soon land in LME warehouses. "It's speculation, maybe fabrication. There have been rumours across Shanghai that a fund was about to deliver a large tonnage against a short position," a dealer in Shanghai said. "But the rumoured amount has fallen from 50,000 tonnes to 30,000 to 10,000 tonnes over the past few weeks. Meanwhile Shanghai copper shows the equivalent of $75 backwardation and positive physical premiums holding around the 200 yuan level." The Singapore-based trader held similar views. "Deliveries of 100,000 tonnes of copper are laughable. There is more metal coming in but we are talking about a much more sober amount -- take off a zero to get closer to the truth." "We get offers to buy 10-30 lots from stockholders. That's the sort of pitch you can expect from someone with a 10,000-tonne parcel, not 100,000 tonnes." Aluminium premiums in Singapore held steady around the $80-$100 a tonne region. Some 2.8 percent of the record 4.4 million tonnes in LME stores are on cancelled warrant, but U.S. locations holding 42 percent of the entire stock also have the highest proportion of cancelled warrants. "Material is still tightly held and the warehousers are tying up metal. Very little is freely available -- less than 10 percent of the total tonnage and most of the free material is in the United States," a third trader said. Budding signs of stability in the ailing U.S. automotive sector could see drawdowns from U.S. warehouses in the medium term as the industry, down on its uppers, buys more material after running down stockpiles. Since November, LME registered warehouses in Detroit have seen average monthly net inflows of aluminium of around 54,000 -- enough to make around 300,000 vehicles -- or about two-thirds of the decline in monthly auto sales in the U.S. South Korea picked up 2,000 tonnes of primary aluminium ingot for Aug. 20 shipping to the port of Incheon at a premium of $128 a tonne the state-run Public Procurement Service said. [MET/TEND] It also bought 2,000 tonnes of zinc ingot for Aug. 31 shipping to the port of Gunsan, at a premium of $120 from Youngpoong <000670.KS>. Zinc in Singapore was around $50 above the LME cash price, with lead at $125 for European origin. Australian material traded at around $200 above LME. Premiums for nickel cathode were $180, while bagged briquettes commanded a premium of $50. Tin premiums remained flat with buyers picking up warrants in Southeast Asia at the cash price. Traders noted more Thai material was becoming available, and suggested China may be scaling back direct purchases of the metal. (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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