FACTBOX-Revisions to base metal price forecasts

Sept 9 (Reuters) - Base metals prices have surged this year as expectations of a global economic recovery, combined with fund and Chinese buying, helped boost prices. Copper has more than doubled in 2009, while aluminium has climbed around 25 percent despite rising inventories and weak fundamentals. Detailed below are some of the revisions and forecast price changes of base metals traded on the LME. NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (Sept 9) * "While the outlook for global economic growth continues to improve with further positive signs in the flow of macroeconomic data, some of the strength in prices likely reflects investors expecting a rapid turnaround in global economic growth. * "In the very near-term, we see the restocking process in China approaching maturity and continue to believe that a temporary fall in the pace of metal imports is likely." * Forecasts copper prices at $5,714 a tonne for Q3 and $5,679 in Q4 from $5,043 and $4,967 previously. * Forecasts aluminium prices at $1,811 a tonne for Q3 and $1,810 in Q4 from $1,640 and $1,639 a tonne previously. GOLDMAN SACHS (Sept 8) * "Investor expectations about continued future economic growth will support prices across base metals as spare capacity gradually disappears and the cost of production steadily climbs. * "We remain most constructive on copper - which has substantially outperformed the other metals over the past month - given its higher leverage to robust Chinese growth and limited spare production capacity." * Sees copper price forecasts in three, six and 12 months time at $7,000 a tonne, $6,950 and $7,330 from $4,630, $4,700 and $4,950 previously. * Sees aluminium price forecasts in three, six and 12 months time at $1,750 a tonne, $1,720 and $1,830 versus $1,490, $1,490 and $1,750 previously. HSBC (Aug 25) * Commodity markets have been in strong recovery mode as the global economy shows increasing signs of bottoming out. * "We believe commodity prices have run ahead of fundamentals. We expect a near-term correction before a gradual recovery in forecast years." * Forecasts copper at $2.18 a lb this year from $1.60 and $1.98 a lb in 2010 from $1.65 previously. * HSBC sees aluminium unchanged at 71 cents a lb in 2009 and 75 cents a lb next year. GFMS METALS CONSULTING (Aug 19) * "Strong Chinese consumption coupled with expectations for a recovery outside of the country to commence late in the year have led us to revise our projections for demand to show marginal growth for the full year in 2009." * GFMS expects an average copper price of $4,900 a tonne for 2009, compared with its previous price range of $4,400-4,500 a tonne set in May. DEUTSCHE BANK (Aug 7) * "We continue to doubt the sustainability of these gains in an environment where Chinese GDP growth is set to slow sharply. We expect evidence of this to grow from October onwards." * Forecasts copper to average $4,197 a tonne this year, down 27.3 percent from previous forecast, and aluminium up 3.3 percent from previous estimate at $1,422 a tonne. * Sees copper at $4,420 a tonne and aluminium at $1,436 next year. ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (Aug 7) * "Once real demand recovers alongside an upswing in the business cycle in 2010, restocking through the depleted manufacturing supply chain is likely to accelerate demand growth, and supply and demand fundamentals will once again drive the metal markets. * "Should risk (appetite) continue to rally into Q4 metals will undoubtedly be swept higher, but there could still be a correction should risk sell off." * Forecasts copper at $4,200 a tonne in 2009 and $5,500 a tonne in 2010. * Sees aluminium at $1,550 a tonne in 2009, and $1,875 next year. FAIRFAX (Aug 6) * "China is the main driver for copper demand. According to our projection Chinese copper demand (including SRB purchases) will grow from 5.15mt or 28 percent of world demand in 2008, to 6.34mt or 35 percent in 2009 and to 8.03mt or 38 percent in 2014." * Forecasts copper to trade between $4,500 a tonne and $6,500 a tonne in H2 2009, and between $4,000 and $6,000 a tonne next year. BANK OF AMERICA MERILL LYNCH (Aug 5) * "The sharp price gains in metals were influenced by an anticipation that the global economy will recover and fundamentals will strengthen. * "Factors like China's healthy metals demand have also contributed to the appreciation. We note that stocks normally build during an economic downturn, but this has happened only to a very limited extent for most base metals this time around." * Changes 2009 price forecasts for aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc from $1,500 a tonne, $3,900, $12,500 and $1,400 to $1,660 a tonne, $4,730, $14,370 and $1,480 respectively. * For 2010, the bank upgrades aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc from $1,600 a tonne, $4,400, $14,000 and $1,750 to $1,750 a tonne, $7,000, $18,500 and $1,800. JP MORGAN (July 27) * "Underpinning base metal demand in H2 will be the onset of restocking across the industry pipeline, with fabricators having run down their working inventory levels aggressively over the past 12 months. * "Copper remains our favoured base metals exposure over the longer term, the copper market moving into protracted supply deficits from 2011 onwards." * Expects copper to average $4,775 a tonne in 2009, against a May forecast of $4,111 a tonne. Aluminium to average $1,608 in 2009, down from $1,450 previously. * Expects copper to average $5,563 a tonne in 2010, against a May forecast of $4,600 a tonne. Aluminium to average $1,775 in 2010, down from $1,638 previously. (Compiled by Michael Taylor; editing by James Jukwey)