Bank of America revises up copper price forecasts
Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009
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LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Bank of America-Merrill Lynch has revised up its copper price forecasts because there is potential for world demand excluding China to rise, it said on Friday.
The U.S.-based bank also revised up its forecasts for gold and silver.
"A confirmation of the economic recovery could provide an incentive for metal market consumers to restart capacities or even restock," BofA Merrill Lynch said in a release.
"Although we anticipate positive metal demand growth next year, we nevertheless believe any demand increases to emerge only gradually. This raises the risk that global offtake (demand) may still be weak in the first quarter of 2010."
BofA expects gold prices to hit $1,500 an ounce in 2011 when oil prices move back above $100 a barrel.
"As emerging market central banks continue to turn to gold and away from G10 government paper to diversify their reserves, gold should remain supported," it said.
"For platinum, even though there are no acute shortages at present, we retain our medium-term bullish view in part because of the headwinds South African producers are facing."
Below is table of forecasts and percentage changes from previous forecasts for base and precious metals
Base Metals
2009 2010 2011
Aluminium $/T 1679 2025 2000
Pct change 2.4 15.7 -
Copper $/T 5137 7125 8000
Pct change 5.6 1.8 -
Lead $/t 1707 2125 2500
Pct change 6.8 6.2 -
Nickel $/t 14954 20000 18000
Pct Change 2.1 8.1 -
Zinc $/t 1649 2125 2750
Pct change 8.9 18.0 -
Precious Metals
Gold $/oz 960 1110 1150
Pct change 2.1 6.0 -
Silver $/oz 14.65 17.60 19.00
Pct Change 6.9 17.5 -
Platinum $/oz 1195 1440 1750
Pct change 4.8 6.5 -
Palladium $/oz 258 370 500
Pct change 12.2 23.3 -
(Reporting by Pratima Desai; editing by Anthony Barker)