Antaike revises up 2009 China aluminium consumption

* China's consumption is expected up 8.7 pct at 13.8 mln T * Output seen rising 0.2 pct to 13.63 mln t in 2009 * Over 5 mln tonnes of capacity starts March-ely November By Polly Yam HONG KONG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The real consumption of primary aluminium in China, the world's top consumer and producer of the metal, is expected to rise 8.7 percent to around 13.8 million tonnes this year, an analyst at state-backed research group Antaike said on Friday. Antaike has raised the estimate from 12.5 million tonnes made in July and 11.8 million tonnes made in January due to strong demand from the building and car sectors, Li Yang told Reuters. The latest estimate suggests a 10.5 percent rise from the prediction in July and a 16.9 percent increase from the January forecast. "The best performer has been the building sector," Li said, adding the sector took up around 40 percent of total consumption in China. Although exports have fallen this year, strong domestic demand resulting from Beijing's stimulus packages is expected to offset part of the demand fall from the exports, he added. Steady prices of aluminium have encouraged Chinese aluminium smelters to start production at idle and new capacities. STARTING OF CAPACITY More than 5 million tonnes of idle and new capacity is estimated to have started production between March and early November, said Li, who estimated about 16.6 million tonnes of annual capacity in the country was in operations currently versus about 11 million tonnes in January this year. "The starting of capacity has been mainly price-driven," Li said. "Orders and sales for downstream products have also risen, prompting more metal production." Output of primary aluminium is expected to rise 0.2 percent on the year to 13.63 million tonnes this year versus 13.6 million tonnes, he said. With that consumption and output estimates, China is expected to add about 820,000 tonnes of privately held primary aluminium stocks this year, Li said. Last week, traders and smelter sources tagged privately held stocks at 800,000 tonnes to 1 million tonnes. The State Reserves Bureau also bought 590,000 tonnes of the metal for state-owned stockpiles. Li gave no forecast for consumption and output for 2010, saying the outlook would be announced at an aluminium conference next week in Kunming city in the province of Yunnan province. But he said the power price hike announced on Thursday would raise cost of production to aluminium smelters from next month and that would support domestic aluminium prices. Some aluminium smelters were cutting spot sales as they expected prices to rise next week, a smelter official said. "We see aluminium prices above 16,500 yuan a tonne next year," he said. Spot aluminium traded around 15,100 yuan per tonne in Shanghai on Friday. (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)