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METALS-Copper steady on data, strong dollar weighs

Monday, Dec 14, 2009
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* Further dollar rebound expected, to pressure metals * Shanghai aluminium hit 15-mth high By Rujun Shen and Jacqueline Wong SHANGHAI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Copper prices were steady onMonday, encouraged by upbeat economic data from the U.S. andChina released on Friday, but restrained by a strong dollar. Unexpectedly strong data from the U.S. showed customersstepped up their spending in November and grew more optimisticthis month, raising hopes of a steady economic recovery andpushing the dollar to a two-month high. [ID:nN11254372] [USD/] "The U.S. dollar is bound for a further bounce, which willadd pressure on prices of commodities," said Wang Zhouyi, ananalyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures, adding that recent news offinancial problems in Greece questions how solid the economicrecovery is. "There's the concern that the economy has not completelyturned around yet, which might help extend gains in thedollar." Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange MCU3gained $15 to $6,850 a tonne by 0300 GMT, after losing nearly 3percent last week, it's largest weekly loss since lateSeptember. Shanghai's benchmark third-month copper futures contractSCFc3 gained 0.2 percent to 54,390 yuan a tonne. Themost-active contract SCFH0 for March delivery was littlechanged at 54,290 yuan a tonne. "Trade interest is thin. Copper is likely to consolidate bythe end of the year, as many investors are locking down theirprofit by year end," said Li Rong, an analyst at Great WallFutures. China's copper imports unexpectedly rose in November asdealers anticipated a rise in demand next year, while thecountry's output of the metal hit a record high. [ID:nTOE5B8069] Spot copper premiums in China picked up recently afterChile's Codelco raised 2010 term premiums, but remained lowelsewhere in Asia, as stockholders try to work off inventoriesby the end of year. [ID:nSP434309] STRONG ALUMINIUM Shanghai aluminium SAFc3 hit a 15-month high of 16,420yuan a tonne before retreating to 16,320 yuan, up 1 percent,extending a 2.5 percent weekly gain. LME aluminium MAL3 shed $15 to $2,260, after reaching a14-month high of $2,289 a tonne last Friday. The strength in aluminium stemmed from shortages in Europe,as much of the record high LME stocks are tied up in financingdeals, traders said. But some warned the price rally in aluminium might be shortlived. "We remain sceptical about aluminium prices in the mediumterm," said Commerzbank in a research note. "Indeed, one reason for the rally is the assumption thatmuch of the record high LME inventories are tied up in fundingtransactions and are therefore not freely available. However,the material should re-enter the market over the next fewmonths." China's aluminium output in November hit a record high. Aluminium imports surged 39.3 percent to 120,674 tonnes, whileexports fell, according to official data. "China is facing an aluminium oversupply, and the Europeanmarket is in a shortage," said Lin Yuhui, deputy generalmanager of Jinhui Futures, noting that the current pricedifferentials would make exports of aluminium productsprofitable. Base metals prices at 0300 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Pct chg 09 LME Cu 6850.00 15.00 +0.22 3060.00 123.86 SHFE Cu* 54390.00 110.00 +0.20 23840.00 128.15 LME Alum 2260.00 -15.00 -0.66 1535.00 47.23 SHFE Alum* 16320.00 175.00 +1.08 11540.00 41.42 COMEX Cu** 310.00 -1.00 -0.32 139.50 122.22 LME Zinc 2300.00 2.00 +0.09 1208.00 90.40 SHFE Zinc 18255.00 30.00 +0.16 10120.00 80.39 LME Nickel 16570.00 -80.00 -0.48 11700.00 41.62 LME Lead 2300.00 -1.00 -0.04 999.00 130.23 LME Tin 15200.00 0.00 +0.00 10700.00 42.06 LME/Shanghai arb^ 328 Dollar/yuan 6.8274 6.8299 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month (Editing by Michael Urquhart)

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