RBS lifts 2010 aluminium, palladium forecasts

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Scotland lifted its 2010 forecastsfor palladium and aluminium prices on Wednesday, and raised its longer-termprice view for gold. The bank increased its aluminium price forecast for next year by 10 percentto $2,200 a tonne and forecast a further rise by 2011 to $2,400 a tonne. The bank said aluminium is likely to climb more than other base metals inthe longer term, benefiting from an expected recovery in the global economy. "Half of the producer cutbacks... have already been unwound and a muchdiminished supply surplus is expected for 2010," it said. "Deficits return by2012." "Yes, an onerous inventory overhang has to be eroded, butthe pace of inventory build has almost stopped. We forecastthat the aluminium price will top $3,000 a tonne in 2013." Of the precious metals, the bank said palladium had been its top pick thisyear and would remain so from 2010-2013. RBS said it ultimately expects thewhite metal used in autocatalysts to trade through $600 an ounce. The bank lifted its 2010 palladium forecast by 14 percent to $400 an ounceand its 2011 price view to $450 an ounce. "We forecast that the palladium market will be in substantialunderlying defict for the foreseeable future, even before exchange-traded fundinvestment," it said. "The running down of the Russian state stockpile to feedthis deficit cannot continue for ever. "We expect autocatalyst demand to recover strongly in 2010and beyond, yet growth in mine output may be sluggish," it said. RBS lifted its gold price forecast by 10 percent in 2011 to $1,075 an ounce,and raised its 2012 view by a fifth to $1,200. By 2012 it expects the yellowmetal to average $1,300 an ounce. Spot gold XAU= was bid at $1,132.60 an ounce at 1152 GMT, while spotpalladium XPD= was at $365.50 an ounce. Aluminium MAL3 was at $2,274 atonne. RBS annual commodity price actuals and forecasts, 2008-13F 2008A 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F LT Base metals Aluminium ($/t) 2,571 1,665 2,200 2,400 2,650 3,000 2,425 Copper ($/t) 6,951 5,145 6,750 7,500 8,250 9,500 4,950 Lead ($/t) 2,084 1,720 2,250 2,500 2,800 3,100 1,700 Zinc ($/t) 1,870 1,650 1,975 2,150 2,450 2,850 1,800 Nickel ($/t) 21,020 14,585 14,750 17,000 19,250 23,000 15,000 Tin ($/t) 18,487 13,535 15,000 16,750 17,750 19,500 15,000 Precious metals Gold ($/oz) 872 975 1,000 1,075 1,200 1,300 825 Silver ($/oz) 14.99 14.65 17.00 17.50 20.00 22.00 13.00 Platinum ($/oz) 1,572 1,205 1,450 1,650 1,800 2,000 1,400 Palladium ($/oz) 351 265 400 450 550 650 400 (Reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by Keiron Henderson)