MARKET TALK: Copper Substitution Likely As Prices Rise

Substitution away from copper is likely to increase at current market prices, along with higher scrap demand, says Numis Securities analyst Marc Elliott. Notes Chinese domestic copper is around $9,366 a metric ton, "well ahead of the LME price and encouraging imports." Adds "although prices could continue to rise further in the coming weeks, we would expect that at some point demand will fall off leading to a price decline, perhaps around the May/June time frame as consumption falls back for the summer and high prices increase scrap usage and encourage greater levels of substitution." LME copper is last at$7,700/ton, +5% from Thursday.