MI ANALYSIS: Japanese port stocks remain low

MI ANALYSIS: Japanese port stocks of aluminium fell again month-on-month in September and remain at significantly lower levels than last year.

Figures from local trading house Marubeni peg end-September stocks at 226,300t, down from 251,600t at the end of August and from 318,800t at the end of September 2005.

As is often the case with these figures, the month-on-month decline seems to have been due to a couple of late arrivals as much as anything else.

However, the underlying trend of lower year-on-year stocks remains in place. Local players consciously worked to get stocks down at the beginning of the year from what were considered too high levels.

Although we’re still waiting for September mill shipment figures, there has been no indication of any sharp pick-up in local consumption, which has been on the lower side of expectations over the summer period, largely because of poor weather and the resulting knock-on impact on sales of beverage cans.

Our friends at Platts peg spot premiums at $82-83—bang in line with the Q4 term premium level—and note they have softened just a touch in the last week or so.

Factoring the port stocks figures into the exchange stocks movement over September shows a cumulative decline of 55,885t. Data on producer inventories from the International Aluminium Institute will only be available towards the end of the month.