Japanese aluminium can demand to stay steady in 2009: sources

Japan's 430,000 mt/year aluminium beverage can demand is expected to staysteady amid recession, while metal demand for most other sectors are to slowdown, local industry sources said Wednesday. Per capita consumption of $2-3/can alcoholic beverages are not expectedto fall steeply, whereas spending for durable items such as automobiles arelikely to fall, said Tokyo traders currently making demand forecast forcalendar 2009. Beverage consumptions are impacted by weather, which makes it difficultto set an accurate demand outlook. Provided that throughout 2009, averagetemperatures prevail in the country, Japan could be consuming 25,000-45,000mt/month of primary aluminium ingot for cans. "There is little room for high growth, but it should not fall ... itcould sustain over 30,000 mt/month aluminium demand," added one source at arolling mill. Aluminium can stocks account for roughly 20% of Japan's total primaryaluminium demand of 2.2-2.3 million mt/year. Another demand area that can sustain its status quo is aluminiumcomponents for printing machines, said one Tokyo trader. This sector,consuming several thousand mt/month of aluminium, so far seems to beindifferent to the economic slowdown. Separately, a Hitachi Metals official during its earnings news conferencelast week said aluminium wheels have growth potential as cars need to belighter, but most traders felt the opposite, that wheel productions will beimpacted by automobile output cuts. Most traders are mixed about demand for larger sectors such as housing,that accounts for 25% of the total primary aluminium demand, and automotiveabout 15%. They agreed that their demand in the first quarter of 2009 is to beweak, but some were not sure if the bearish mood would linger after summer. Some Japanese traders plan to set aluminium shipment quantity forcalendar 2009 when they meet Western producer representatives later thismonth. Producers are expected in Tokyo in two weeks to discuss with Japanesebuyers premiums for the first quarter of calendar 2009. --www.platts.com