Japan Aluminum Industry Urged To Prepare For Supply Shortage

The aluminum industry needs to prepare for a huge supply shortage anticipated on a global scale toward 2020, Japan's Jiji Press reported the Japan Aluminum Association as saying Wednesday.

World demand for unwrought aluminum is estimated at 73.9 million tonnes for 2020, expanding 95 per cent from the level estimated for 2010 due mainly to strong demand growth in China and other emerging economies, the association said.

However, the global output capacity will stand at only 66 million tonnes, up 48 per cent, or even lower at 63.9 million tonnes if anticipated shutdowns of old aluminum plants are taken into account, it also said.

This will leave a supply shortage of 10 million tonnes, the industry group said, calling on Japanese industry players to increase their procurement ability through more active participation in resources development projects and by obtaining more concessions.

Demand from China is expected to increase 2.8-fold to 43.6 million tonnes, accounting for nearly 60 per cent of the estimated global demand. Brazil is expected to log demand growth of 67 per cent to 2.5 million tonnes and India will likely see an increase of 53 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes.

European demand is projected at 7.6 million tonnes, up 12 per cent, and US demand at 6.2 million tonnes, up 41 per cent. Japanese demand is forecast to rise 26 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes, a record high.