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MI aluminium stocks analysis: New wave of cancellations at Singapore

Monday, Dec 25, 2006
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Thursday brought another wave of cancellation activity at Singapore with 11,525t moving into the cancelled category, mostly in the form of T-bar. That brings cumulative cancellations here so far this week to a whopping 28,450t and it is now clear that the hefty (24,750t) cancellations back on Dec 4 were just the beginning of a bigger movement.

Cancelled tonnage at Singapore now totals 32,525t, equivalent to 9.4% of registered tonnage at this location. That is going to continue feeding robust draw rates in the days to come with the market scuttlebutt suggesting this metal is going to head to Europe, where the physical market is expected to remain tight going into Q1 2007.

The ratio of cancelled tonnage across the system as a whole has moved up to 6.7% from 5.5%, although it is clear where the bulk of the "out" side activity is going to come in the period ahead of us.
Arrivals at Asian locations remained robust Thursday but those into the US dropped a gear. Baltimore received "just" 750t yesterday, bringing the cumulative 3-day inflow here to 9,325t and lifting registered tonnage to 76,700t.

Note that warranted tonnage in the NYMEX system is also creeping higher, yesterday bringing the second consecutive delivery on to warrant of 792 tons at Toledo. That lifted the headline figure to 19,505 tons, the highest it's been since early October.

Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by a highly modest 640t to 18,973t in the week to Thursday. That still leaves them at very low levels and showing a year-to-date decline of 27,509t.

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