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Rusal float could be a risky exercise for Paris bourse

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2009
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France and Russia have always had close economic ties. This remains the case under President Nicolas Sarkozy. He is even considering selling sensitive French naval equipment to Moscow in what could constitute the most important transfer of military equipment to Russia by a Nato member state. Now it seems that Paris may be preparing to welcome one of Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin's favourite oligarchs, Oleg Deripaska. He is considering floating Rusal - the leading Russian aluminium group he controls - on the Paris stock exchange. But tempting as it may be for Paris to snatch such a big flotation from London, this could nonetheless turn out to be a risky exercise. It would be the first time a big Russian company has listed on the bourse, but Paris should perhaps first ask why Mr Deripaska is not going straight to London - long the natural harbour for large commodities groups seeking funds on the market. Could it have anything to do with his problems in the UK, where he is facing legal action, including a suit in the high court from a former partner in Rusal claiming massive compensation? Clearly, the uncertainty surrounding a case that could potentially cost Rusal up to $4bn is not the best way to interest London's investment community - even though Mr Deripaska vigorously insists that the case has no merit. So the Russian businessman appears to believe his chances for the long overdue listing of the aluminium group might be better in Hong Kong and Paris. Rusal originally hoped to be listed three years ago but the financial crisis got in the way. With stock markets recovering around the world and renewed investor appetite for equities, the Russian group is angling for dual Hong Kong and Paris listings to help it, among other things, reduce its heavy debt burden. The Hong Kong listing also appears designed to attract Chinese and Asian institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds given Rusal's expectations of playing a prime role in supplying China's voracious demand for aluminium. A simultaneous listing in Paris would allow Rusal's new shares to be traded in euros as well as around the clock. In January, Rusal said that investors in Hong Kong were "more hungry" for Russian shares than were those in London, and it cited diplomatic tensions between London and Moscow as another factor behind the move. While a Paris listing may make good sense for Rusal and its controlling Russian shareholder, it is less obvious how Paris would benefit. There may well be some political gains for France, not least for the French banks that are heavily exposed to Rusal. A flotation would eventually give them a comfortable financial exit. However, for the French financial regulator, the AMF, the decision is not going to be easy at a time when the public mood in France remains deeply suspicious of the financial system. It may be tempting to have the first big Russian company listing in Paris at a time when the French capital is trying to rival London as a financial centre. For the biggest question will inevitably be whether Paris and its financial regulator have been as rigorous in vetting Rusal as London would have been. The only way to respond to these questions may be to demand a higher degree of transparency from the Russians than normal - particularly given the uncertainty over the London court case. Nuclear friction The Belgian government has issued an ultimatum to GDF-Suez, the Franco-Belgian energy group that is also the country's biggest electricity utility, to agree by Thursday to pay a charge of €500m for operating nuclear power stations in the country. Last year GDF-Suez paid a nuclear levy of €250m in Belgium but at the same time it challenged the charge in the country's constitutional court. This year it was asked to pay a similar levy for operating nuclear plants and to make an additional €250m contribution to Belgium's renewable energy fund in exchange for the government agreeing to extend the life of three old nuclear reactors for another 10 years. Gerard Mestrallet, the utility's normally mild-mannered chairman, said that he was no longer willing to pay this levy, sparking a political storm in Brussels. In so doing, Mr Mestrallet may have either been very clever or rather rash. Clever if the end result is a financial compromise that is both in the interest of his group and pleases the politicians: the opposite if it ends up making life even more difficult for his company to operate in its Belgian home market.

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