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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Down by 3,900t on week

Tuesday, Nov 14, 2006
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LME stocks of aluminium fell by a net 3,900t last week, reversing the previous week’s modest 700t build and leaving the headline figure nudging levels last seen in January—a period of very heavy stocks build.

Inflow was steady last week with most of it focused on Singapore which received 4,350t. The only other LME location to receive metal was Pusan in South Korea, which got 1,625t.

Draws were less than exciting but at an average 1,975t per day, they were just enough to help the headline figure edge lower every day of the week.

However, fresh cancellations dropped a gear to 4,600t last week from 16,425t the previous week. That’s left the cancelled pipeline looking a little depleted again with the ratio of cancelled tonnage ending Friday at a modest 5.2%. As such, it’s difficult to see any sustained pick-up in draw rates in the next few days, meaning overall direction will tend to be a function of how much comes in rather than what leaves.

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