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MI Comment: Aluminium explores support as CTAs liquidate

Friday, Dec 22, 2006
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Copper weakness set the agenda for the LME complex on Wednesday after already-negative sentiment had been strengthened by labour accords in Chile, improved physical supply and more negative demand projections from the US. Aluminium had come off sharply from a premarket high of 2810 to 2772 before we signed off yesterday and the slide continued to 2755. Locals said profit-taking from systematic CTAs featured on the sell-side, though dollar-weakness continued to draw consumer interest at lower levels. As the open outcry sessions got underway the market bounced, reaching 2795 before running out of gas, falling back to 2760 in the afternoon.

Nearby spreads were unchanged, while forwards were a mixed bag, slacker overall.

On Thursday morning technical support c. 2750/60 was still holding at time of writing, though the market remained under pressure, slipping from an early high of 2788 to 2758 currently. Cliff Green Consultancy as at last night expected support to come under "serious examination", with a decisive breach signalling targets c. 2660, then 2560/70. The trading strategists considered "probing the short side", they wrote with resistance now starting at 2810.

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