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MI Comment: Aluminium treads above 2800, eyes 2900

Tuesday, Mar 20, 2007
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As we signed off Friday aluminium had spent the morning trading sideways in a 2770-2793 band and not before the pm sessions did the market stir from there. It was copper's afternoon surge to 6600 that helped the rest of the metals complex, with an end-of-week bout of short-covering steering aluminium to a high of 2820 ahead of the day's close.

The nearby C-3m spread was little-changed overall, though a shift in distribution within Apr-May saw Apr18-20 rated at 7.00b (0.96b), while the balance of the period was valued at 5.50c (0.96c). The excursion above 2800 failed to stir the forward market, which ended fractionally better bid in places. The LME's WC warrant banding was unchanged with one party at 80-90% and another at 30-40%.

Monday morning had been a very dull session up to time of writing, though dealers did expect 'fireworks' later in the shape of third Wednesday pricing, with Mar21 at Cash. Volumes had not yet mustered 4 figures while prices had been moribund in a 2785-2803 range. Friday's solid close above 2800 now set up moves towards 2900, according to Cliff Green Consultancy, which saw interim resistance c. 2850. Last at 2795.

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