MI ANALYSIS: Chinese aluminium product exports still super-strong in May

May brought no let-up in the pace of China’s exports of aluminium products, according to the latest snapshot of the country’s trade.

Exports of “product” in May were 195,840t in May, just short of April’s record 196,710t. Cumulative exports in the Jan-May 2007 period were 801,365t, almost double the 408,000t exported in the year-earlier period.

Anecdotal reports coming out of China suggest that many players are now rushing to export ahead of an expected adjustment to the export tax rebates that apply to aluminium products.

Exports of products have soared since Beijing imposed a 15% duty on exports of primary metal with local players quick to capitalise on the differential tax treatment. The export surge has also boosted local demand for primary metal, which is evidenced in low stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

That export tax on primary metal still seems to stifling exports in that form. The snapshot out this morning gives one figure for exports of both primary and alloy—46,181t. Exports of alloy have averaged around 29,600t per month so far this year, suggesting that May exports of primary alone were around 16,000-17,000t. That’s very much in line with the subdued export levels seen since the hike in the export duty from 5% to 15% effective the start of 2007.