As we signed off Friday aluminium and the rest of the LME complex appeared to be shaping up for a lively end to June as well as the second quarter and first half of 2007. Copper remained the driving force as stock movements and warrant cancellations heightened alarm over nearby supply, with a series of strikes actual and potential in the background. The light metal had visited highs of 2760 before we signed off, bringing the prospect of a challenge to technical resistance up to 2770, though it turned out to be false promise. The afternoon was a damp squib as producer selling halted upward progress and prices retreated all the way to 2713, while the others also slid on a trio of soft macroeconomic indicators from Japan, Germany and the US.
Nearby spreads remained unchanged, while forward backwardations nudged $0.50 wider here and there on outright selling interest. In this morning’s update the LME’s WC warrant banding report was down to one holding in the 30-40% bracket.
Things were dull so far on Monday morning, with aluminium remaining firmly entrenched (bogged down?) in a 2660/70-2760/70 range and with a breakout on either side required to regenerate interest. At time of writing prices were hovering at the higher end of a narrow 2723-2742 trading range, while turnover via Select stood at a paltry 838 lots, despite the dollar falling markedly across the board.
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