MI aluminium stocks analysis: Mini downtrend broken

A six-day mini-downtrend (cumulative drop was 6,375t) came to an end Wednesday as the inflow at Singapore outpaced draws in the rest of the system. Singapore is currently seeing accelerated inflow with cumulative warrantings of 6,700t over the last three reporting days. It is also one of the most active locations on the "out" side but draws have not kept pace with what has arrived. The other active "out" side location is Trieste, where metal is now going off the board at a brisk pace from the metal that was cancelled at the beginning of last month. That said, there are 8,400t left awaiting draw in the cancelled category, suggesting that robust "out" side activity at this Italian location is going to be a feature of the LME’s daily stocks reports for some time yet. Elsewhere, however, cancelled tonnage is falling. Fresh cancellations so far this week have totalled a low 1,600t and the ratio of cancelled tonnage in the system has slid to an equally low 2.8%. That is going to limit draw activity over the coming days at everywhere bar Trieste. The last two days have brought 480t of draws, split between 420t at Singapore, 40t at Bremen and 20t at Trieste. Cancelled tonnage was topped up to the tune of 120t of A380 ingot at Genoa, which now holds the largest concentration of cancelled tonnage at 1,140t. The downtrend in LME-registered stocks of NASAAC unsurprisingly dropped a gear during the US national holiday with "just" 120t of ingot drawn down at Baltimore.