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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Nudging fresh 3-year highs

Tuesday, Jul 17, 2007
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LME stocks of primary aluminium rose by a net 11,375t last week with the headline figure recording a fresh 3-year high on Thursday. It eased again Friday—the first “down” day in almost two weeks—but only marginally so. Accelerated inflow at Singapore has been the key driver for higher overall stocks. It received 12,550t last week and recorded a net rise of 10,125t. However, other Asian locations were also in action on the “in” side. Pusan in South Korea received 2,500t and Johor in Malaysia 4,250t. Draw rates remained subdued for most of the week with activity largely focused on Singapore and Trieste, where metal is still going off the board on a daily basis after the mass cancellation of registered tonnage at the end of May. Of the original 17,725t, 4,700t remain in the cancelled category at the Italian location, suggesting it will remain active through this week. Draws accelerated again over Thursday and Friday in response to a pick-up in cancellation activity—it totalled 10,850t last week, which was the best weekly level in six weeks. However, a low ratio of cancelled tonnage in the system at 3.1% suggests little scope for a sustained acceleration in “out” side activity, although draw rates should improve from the very low levels seen before Thursday. NYMEX-warranted stocks of aluminium were unchanged for the second consecutive week, the headline figure holding at 19,078 tons (17,307 metric).

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