Production of primary aluminium outside of China is growing slowly but steadily, according to the latest preliminary figures from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).
Average daily production in the non-China world was 67,800t in June, a fresh all-time high, according to the IAI.
Cumulative production over the first half of this year was 12.146 million tonnes, up 2.9% on the year-earlier period. That growth rate is still incremental but it has been picking up speed with every passing month this year. Growth in 2006, by contrast, was a minimal 1.7%.
The fastest growth rate at 7.4% in H1 07 was still coming from the Asia (non-China) region, although it has lost some of its pace from last year’s 11.3%. Capacity creep in both the Persian Gulf and India are the key factors at work in the region.
The second-fastest growth rate at 3.5% came from North America. This year’s restart of the 268,000tpy Hannibal smelter by Ormet is a key underlying driver of higher production. So too is the restart of a 90,000tpy line at Alcoa’s Intalco smelter in the state of Washington.
The uneven nature of production growth in North America over the last few months (clear to see in the chart above) is also down to Alcoa. It lost a 107,000tpy line at the Tennessee smelter in May after a freak lightning strike on a power substation. Although the capacity has been brought back on line much faster than expected, it now has another line down at its Rockdale smelter in Texas due to problems with anode production.
Alcoa is also experiencing delays to its new 320,000tpy Fjardaal smelter in Iceland—due to delays in the associated power plant. The company’s official line is that the plant will be running at capacity by next year but we’ve also seen reports which have cast doubt on that time-table.
A slower ramp-up at Fjardaal may be inhibiting production growth in Western Europe, which was just 0.9% in H1 2007. However, the important point here is that production in the region is growing at all—it fell by 4.0% last year. Fjardaal is part of that turnaround but so too is the reactivation of the 133,000tpy Hamburg smelter by Germany’s Trimet. On the debit side, Hydro has just won a reprieve for 150,000tpy of older Soederberg-technology capacity at its Karmoy plant. The capacity was facing early closure this year on environmental grounds but the authorities have allowed the original closure time-table to stand—end 2009.
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