MI aluminium stocks analysis: Finely balanced

Two days of net rises and three subsequent days of net falls pretty much saw LME aluminium stocks movement balance itself out last week with a net decline of 125t. The key determinant of overall direction remains Singapore, which is accounting for just about all of the inflow into the system at the moment. It received another 6,125t last week but the pace of arrivals dropped off in the second part, accounting for the overall decline from Wednesday onwards. Draws ran at a steady if unexciting pace but cancelled tonnage sank to 21,550t on Friday from 24,725t the previous week. That is going to prevent any surprises on the “out” side of the stock equation, meaning it will be how much turns up in Singapore that will likely remain the determinant of overall movement in the coming days.