Total reported stocks of primary aluminium—those registered with the big three exchanges plus Japanese port stocks plus producer unwrought stocks—rose by 108,961t to 2,666,548t in July.
It was the largest monthly increase of the year and brings the cumulative movement in reported inventory to a net rise of 73,254t as at the end of the month. That figure is remarkably similar to the global market surplus estimate recently released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, although its most recent figures cover only the period Jan-Jun 2007.
All the components of the global stocks picture rose in July with the exception of warranted stocks on the NYMEX which fell by 201t to 17,106t.
The biggest single rise was the 61,000t increase in producer unwrought inventories. However, there are a couple of important points to note here. Firstly, at 1.526 million tonnes producer stocks at the end of July were still down by 95,000t from the start of the year and were down by 77,000t on the year-earlier figure.
Secondly, July brought only the smallest of rebuilds in extremely low producer stocks in both North America and Europe.
North American producer stocks increased by 21,000t in July after slumping by 67,000t in the preceding two months. They were still down by 95,000t on the start of the year and, as the chart shows, remained low by any recent historical yardstick.
The same holds true of the even smaller 4,000t build in European producer stocks to 535,000t in July.
The biggest increase—23,000t—in regional producer stocks came in Africa in July. This region is prone to quite sharp swings in producer inventories, probably reflecting shipping schedules, and we’d not be surprised to see stocks drawn down again in August.
The underlying lower trend in producer unwrought inventories is an important counter-weight to steadily rising exchange inventories.
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