| LME Aluminium Evening Evaluations, Sep 04 (Sep 03 in brackets) | ||||||
| Cash | C-Sep | Sep-Oct | Oct-Nov | Nov-3m | C-3m | 3m |
| 2393.25 | 7.75 | 19.50 | 22.75 | 7.75 | 57.75 | 2451.00 |
| (2420.50) | (8.50) | (19.50) | (22.75) | (6.75) | (57.50) | (2478.00) |
| Forward Averages | Sep 04 | Sep 03 |
| Outright 2008 | 2515.81 | 2540.00 |
| Outright 2009 | 2521.25 | 2542.79 |
| Outright 2010 | 2472.50 | 2484.63 |
| Outright 2011 | 2407.13 | 2399.96 |
| Outright 2012 | 2342.50 | 2327.50 |
Rising LME stocks and apparent liquidation in the forward structure put aluminium under further pressure on Tuesday. As we signed off yesterday prices were coming off, slipping from 2493 to 2465 on modest volume, though in the afternoon the drop extended to lows of 2434 before bouncing back. US construction spending in July and ISM data for August were weak, though much in line with expectations and values regained 2465 before dealers left for the evening.
Forward backwardations had contracted considerably in preceding sessions and yesterday 2010 and 2011 again lost some $2.00/mth, with much outright volume changing hands for December 2011. Locals suggested that either a forced liquidation was underway or a strategic transfer of positions, though rates were widely expected to recover once the transaction was complete, they said. One party remained in the 30-40% bracket of the LME’s WC warrant banding report in this morning’s update.
So far on Wednesday morning trading had resumed in Asia c. 2470, falling to 2447 around LME stocks time as inventories registered another net 7,175t increase, before recovering to 2470 currently. Volumes were better, with LME Select notching up 2,400 lots so far. A sustained break beneath 2400 would set prices on course to the 2200 region, Cliff Green Consultancy wrote in their latest technical report.
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