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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai, LME stocks rise again

Saturday, Sep 08, 2007
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Stocks of primary aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by 1,623t to 63,634t in the week to Thursday.

LME Aluminium Stocks
Previous In Out Total Open Cancelled Change
858,925 9,500 1,500 866,925 831,875 35,050 +8,000

 

Location In Out Cancellations
Pusan 0 0 1,825
Gwangyang 0 0 1,225
Johor 0 125 0
Singapore 500 1,150 1,875
Baltimore 9,000 175 0
St Louis 0 50 0

It was the fourth consecutive weekly rise with the cumulative increase in that period 16,149t. However, as the chart shows, SHFE stocks have done nothing more than recover from their recent lows to around the half-way point with their early March highs around the 100,000t level.

Meanwhile, LME stocks hit fresh 3-year highs yesterday thanks to a continuation of the accelerated inflow at Baltimore, which has now received 31,075t over the last four reporting days.

"Out" side activity is currently providing little resistance to this inflow but keep an eye on the cancelled tonnage figure, which yesterday rose to its highest level since the middle of June.

There were 4,925t of fresh cancellations yesterday—note that all of them were at Asian locations—which brings the week-to-date total to a hefty 17,525t and has helped the overall ratio of cancelled tonnage in the system rise to 4.0%.

That should translate into accelerated draw activity in the near future.

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