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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai creeping higher, LME surging higher

Saturday, Sep 15, 2007
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Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by 2,549t to 66,183t in the week to Thursday.

It was the fifth consecutive up week and part of a broader re-build from the mid-June low point of 22,432t. However, stocks have yet to come close to the 2007 highs just below 100,000t seen after the Lunar New Year holidays.

SHFE Aluminium Stocks

While Shanghai stocks are creeping upwards, those registered with the LME are still on a surge. Another 8,450t hit the system yesterday, sending the headline figure through the 900,000t level for the first time since July 20, 2004.

After three days of heavy warranting at Rotterdam, the focus of the flood switched back to Baltimore Thursday. This US location received 31,075t last week but had been inactive this week up until yesterday. The arrivals here came in a mixture of sow and T-bar.

Draw rates have picked up this week and cancellation activity remains robust but…so what? Until this movement of metal onto LME warrant has run its course, neither fact is significant.

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