MI aluminium stocks analysis: Surge continues

The ongoing surge in LME-registered stocks of aluminium continued Monday with heavy warranting taking place at Baltimore for the third consecutive day. For the likes of us who are counting, LME stocks have now risen by a net 85,875t since this flood started on Aug 31. The main focus of the surge has been Baltimore, which has received 53,150t in that period, Rotterdam (20,875t), Liverpool (13,100t) and Hull (12,900t). Smaller, more routine, inflow has also been taking place at the likes of Singapore and Johor (Malaysia). Draws remain very steady and the recent build in cancelled tonnage should see that trend extended for a few days at least. Fresh cancellations, however, dropped a gear on Monday. As a result the ratio of cancelled tonnage slipped marginally to 4.6%.