MI aluminium stocks analysis: Up again, but so too is cancelled tonnage

The strong up trend in LME-registered aluminium stocks continued yesterday with accelerated inflow at Baltimore the key feature for the fourth consecutive day. The US east coast location has been a focal point for this arrival surge. Since it started on Aug 31, Baltimore has received 59,450t, lifting registered tonnage here to 174,850t. That makes it the second largest concentration of LME tonnage after Singapore, which holds 375,325t. While the headline figure is now daily punching out fresh 2007 and fresh 3-year highs, it is masking the continued rise in cancelled tonnage in the system. Another 7,250t moved into the cancelled category Tuesday, lifting cancelled tonnage to its highest level this year. Daily draw rates are already responding and can be expected to retain their own accelerated pace for some time. This is still only slowing rather than halting the up trend as long as this sort of daily inflow rate is the norm.