MI aluminium stocks analysis: Baltimore surge continuing

Baltimore received another surge of metal onto LME warrant yesterday, bringing the cumulative inflow at this US east coast location to 66,425t since it started at the beginning of the month. As long as it continues and as long as it outstrips draws, the headline figure is going to carry on hitting fresh 2007 and fresh 3-year highs. Draws are running at a robust pace right now—thanks to recent accelerated cancellation activity—but still doing no more than slowing the up trend. Yesterday's "reverse" cancellations at Singapore and Gwangyang resulted in a net 225t movement back from the cancelled to the open tonnage category. That's taken some of the heat off the recent rise in the ratio of cancelled tonnage, which has slipped quite sharply to 4.4% from Tuesday's 5.0%.