In light of persistent stock landings and rising (Chinese) production, aluminium's rally earlier last week had been more cautious than others. As such, its subsequent fall on Friday was less acute as copper dropped the best part of $200/t in the afternoon. Before we signed off last prices had lifted to highs of 2458 and then eased to 2419 on healthy two-way turnover as the weak dollar continued to stimulate consumer buying. 3-month values regained 2446 in the morning sessions, though as copper hit the bump-stops around $8000, most of the complex peeled back in the afternoon. Aluminium bottomed at 2402 in the pm kerb.
Forward spreads were easier throughout, while locals noted persistent outright buying interest for December 2011, which ended rated at 2447.
On Monday morning
LME warehouses greeted another 6,125t after prices had slipped to lows of 2396. However, dollar weakness and the resulting strength throughout the commodities sector proved supportive once again, with aluminium picking up to highs of 2422 currently. Volumes were again good, at 2,500 lots via Select at time of writing. For as long as support c. 2370/80 remained intact, technicians Cliff Green Consultancy continued to see a likelihood of tests of resistance above 2500, they wrote in their latest daily report. In the longer term, underlying technical studies remained 'clearly bearish', however, as they looked to re-establish shorts above current levels. Last at 2423.
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