MI aluminium stocks analysis: Flood becomes a trickle

The flood of metal onto LME warrant became a trickle yesterday with Baltimore and Chicago—the most recent focal points for the heavy landings—featuring only very modest fresh inflow. One day's figures may yet prove to be a blip but if we have seen the end of the surge, the headline figure could well start falling again at a brisk pace. The deluge of arrivals since the end of August has masked a steady build in the cancelled pipeline. That's already fed through into better daily draw rates in the last couple of weeks, although the impact on the overall up trend was highly muted given the scale of inflow. If arrivals now drop a gear, there is plenty of metal sitting in the cancelled category to feed robust “out” side activity over the coming days. Tomorrow will tell…