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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai stocks break up trend

Saturday, Sep 29, 2007
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Stocks of primary aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by a net 1,271t to 66,739t in the week to Thursday.

It was the first time since early August that SHFE stocks have fallen, although the move may turn out to a blip timed around next week's national holidays.

LME stocks have also broken the recent up trend with Thursday bringing the second consecutive "down" day of the month.

SHFE Aluminium Stocks

That's largely because inflow has dried up, the surge of metal onto warrant at Chicago and Baltimore reduced to a mere trickle.

It remains to be seen whether we're seeing the end of the wholesale movement of metal onto LME warrant or are merely experiencing a mid-flow ebbing. The LME system has received 164,425t since Aug 31, much of it in the form of accelerated inflow in the US.

It's worth noting that the market scuttlebutt has suggested that as much as 300,000t may be on the move, which would suggest there is more to come. We are agnostic on this one.

Draws remain robust and can be expected to continue in this vein for several more days given the recent build in cancelled tonnage in the system.

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