MI aluminium stocks analysis: Still finely poised

The LME aluminium stocks headline figure remains finely balanced between inflow and outflow—the net movement over the course of this week has been a marginal 375t increase. Metal is still flowing into Chicago and Baltimore in the US—albeit not at the sort of rates that characterised both locations last month. There is also a continuing flow of metal onto LME warrant at Singapore and Johor, both of which have featured regular two-way activity for some time. Draws, meanwhile, are running at very solid rates as some of the recent overhang of cancelled tonnage gets worked off. What is leaving, however, is not being replaced. Fresh cancellations remain lacklustre this week—just a low 2,250t so far—and cancelled tonnage is now tumbling quite fast as a result. There's enough in the pipeline to feed Thursday's sort of rate for some days yet but current low cancellation activity suggests a slowdown in draws is around the corner.