MI aluminium stocks analysis: Up trend loses momentum

LME-registered stocks of primary aluminium rose for the seventh consecutive week last week but the pace of climb slowed to "just" 450t. The heavy movement of metal from off-market to on-market seems to have run its course for now. Both Chicago and Baltimore—two of the focal points for that surge—were in action last week but arrivals slowed to a more "normal" 1,300t and 3,075t respectively. Elsewhere, Johor received 3,050t, Pusan 1,550t, Singapore 1,000t and Rotterdam 250t. Draws ran at a steady pace last week but not quite steady enough to offset the arrivals. It looked as if it was going to be a very low week for fresh cancellations but a surge on Friday itself helped the weekly tally to a half-way respectable 6,600t, even if that was the lowest weekly total since August. The cancelled pipeline is still fairly full and will support more steady "out" side activity for several more days, meaning it will be the pace of arrivals that determines overall short-term direction. The headline figure continues to hover just below its 3-year highs of the previous week of 941,825t.