LMEWEEK-Aluminium could rise short term -JP Morgan

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Aluminium prices could rise further in the short term as restocking across the supply chain overcomes the impact of excess inventory and capacity in the market, JP Morgan said on Monday. Michael Jansen, executive director of the Commodities Group at the bank, said at the London Metal Exchange seminar that a recovering industrial sector will prompt aggressive restocking next year, underpinning aluminium prices. On the longer term outlook, however, he said the world was looking at a lower pace of consumption. "In 2010 demand looks OK but not after that. Stocks will trend higher and prices will be subdued." The bank expects aluminium prices will average $1,850 a tonne next year compared with $1,608 this year, while by 2014 prices will have risen only to an average $2,000. It sees the market surplus this year at 1.6 to 1.7 million tonnes and thinks this surplus will fall to around 600,000 tonnes by next year because of smelter discipline, specifically in the western world.