LMEWEEK-Aluminium could hit $3,000-Harbor

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Aluminium prices could rise to as high as $3,000 a tonne in 2010 as demand is set to increase and prompt material remains scarce, consultants Harbor Intelligence said on Tuesday. Aluminium prices will likely trade at an average of $2,600 during 2010, Jorge Vazquez, vice president of Harbour said at a conference organised by Societe Generale. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was trading at 1,887.75 a tonne at 1400. Consumption of the metal used in transport will rise 19 percent in 2010 to 43 million tonnes, having already risen 3 percent year-on-year in 2009 and 40 percent on a monthly basis, he said. "From the demand side there's a restocking component and a real underlying growth component," said Vazquez, who expected a wave of aluminium upgrades in 2010. He said he was on the high side of the consensus because aluminium will also be supported by "higher oil prices, falling inventory levels in terms of weeks of consumption, and a weak dollar." "Aluminium is energy in metal form," Vazquez said, adding that aluminium prices tended to lag oil prices by about three months. "Aluminium is an intimate play of oil and a direct play of demand." He added that when demand deviated from the norm on the downside, pent up demand later overshoots on the upside. A lack of nearby material is also supportive for prices of the metal, he said. LME aluminium inventories stand near a record around 4.6 million tonnes. But 70 percent of this stock -- about 3 million tonnes -- will probably never be available because it is tied up in finance deals that will expire, gradually, any time between the next three months and the next three years, he said.