The LME headline figure continues to tick lower with draws marginally outpacing fresh arrivals. The net movement over the last five reporting days has been a modest decline of 1,450t.
Slowing arrival rates have been the key factor in the mini downtrend since draw rates have held very steady over the last week or so.
Cancellations are coming through in just enough numbers to maintain this sort of daily draw—it has averaged 1,460t per day over the last week—for the immediate future, even if a re-acceleration of "out" side activity remains dependent on fresh cancellations coming through in bigger quantities than we've seen for a while. The overall ratio of cancelled tonnage remains at a low 2.7%.
NYMEX-warranted stocks, by contrast, are falling faster. Yesterday brought another 1,000-ton draw of sow from Toledo. Stocks fell by 5,389 tons last week and Monday's action leaves the headline figure at 12,832 tons (11,641 metric).
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