Primary aluminium markets records surplus in January to July 2007

The calculated market surplus for primary aluminium for January to July 2007 was 83 kt. Demand for primary aluminium was 21.5 million tonnes, 1860 kt more then the equivalent total for January to July 2006. Production rose by 2260 kt to 21.58 million tonnes during the same period. Total reported stocks rose during July to stand at 2.82 million tons, equivalent to just under one month’s demand, at the end of the month. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Overall, global production increased by 11.7 per cent compared with January to July 2006. Chinese output rose by 1887 kt and currently accounts for almost 32 per cent of the world production total. Net exports of unwrought aluminium fromChina were, at 149 kt, 64 per cent below the total recorded in the first seven months of 2006. Output of Aluminium semis rose by 42 per cent which was in line with a 47 per cent increase in Chinese demand for primary metal. Production in the EU27 was down by 0.6 per cent whilst NAFTA output increased by 4.0 per cent. Global demand rose by just under 10 per cent to 21.5 million tonnes. EU27 demand continues to be stronger and the year on year increase was just over 6 per cent. In July, primary aluminium production was 3216.1 kt and consumption was 3175.6 kt. Copper market records a deficit in January to July 2007 The copper market recorded another calculated shortfall of 43 kt for the month of July and was in 328 kt deficit for the first seven months of 2007 . This compares with a surplus of 182 kt reported for the 2006 calendar year. Reported stocks decreased by 58 kt between the beginning of January and the end of July 2007. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Mine production for the seven month period was, at 8.87 million tonnes, 3 per cent higher than in January to July 2006. Refined production rose by 2.4 per cent to 10.26 million tonnes. Chinese output rose by 186 kt, Indian, Japanese and Chilean production rose by 77 kt, 32 kt and 138 kt respectively compared with the first seven months of 2006. Zambian output fell by 31 kt Consumption in January to July 2007 was 10.6 million tonnes which was 4.6 per cent higher than the same period of the previous year. Chinese consumption increased to 2757 kt from 1989 kt in the previous year. The calculated apparent demand data excludes any changes in government stockpiles or any other unreported stocks. EU27 demand was, at 2527 kt, 66 kt below the January to July 2006 total. In July, refined copper production was 1465 kt and consumption was 1508 kt. Lead market records deficit in January to July 2007 The lead market recorded a deficit of 35 kt during the first seven months of 2007 which compares with the January to July 2006 deficit of 49 kt. Reported stocks fell by 4 kt during the period to 272 kt. LME stocks fell by 8.4 kt during July and stood at 36.7 kt at the end of the month. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Lead mine production was 2149 kt with Chinese output dominating the global supply. Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was 2.9 per cent above the equivalent figure recorded one year earlier. Global demand was about 2.5 per cent higher than the previous year to reach a total 4752 kt with increases recorded in many parts of Asia. EU27 demand totalled 1069 kt, a decrease of 2.7 per cent compared with January to July 2006. China consumed 1439 kt of lead in the first seven months of 2007 with the July total 10 kt short of the May record. In July, refined lead production was 675.6 kt and consumption was 691.4 kt. Zinc market in surplus in January to July 2007 The zinc market was in surplus by 175 kt during January to July 2007 with reported stocks some 20 kt lower. The proportion of total stocks held in LME warehouse has declined from 47 per cent at the end of 2005 to less than 14 per cent at the end of July 2007. Mine production was, at 6177 kt, 7.8 per cent higher than the January to July 2006 total. Refined production rose by 469 kt to 6565 kt with Asian countries (especially China) contributing an additional 390 kt to the world output. EU27 production rose by 3.6 per cent and NAFTA output was 1.1 per cent higher. World demand was 210 kt higher than in the first seven months of 2006 with the most significant increase recorded in China. Chinese demand was 1962 kt which is 30 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes In July, slab zinc production was 911.0 kt and consumption was 877.9 kt. Nickel market records deficit in January to July 2007. The Nickel market recorded a deficit of 13 kt during January to July 2007 with reported stocks 5.7 kt lower. The supply and demand data include low grade ferro nickel produced in China from imported ores which had previously been excluded from the WBMS data. Mine production in January to July 2007 was, at 876.1 kt, 7 per cent above the 2006 total. Refined production was 13.4 per cent above the comparable total for 2006 with output increases in China, Finland and Canada accounting for most of the higher output. World demand was 101.6 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes In July, nickel smelter production was 129.5 kt and consumption was 134.7 kt. Tin market records tiny surplus for January to July 2007 The tin market recorded a calculated market deficit of 0.1 kt during January to July 2007 after allowing for reported DLA deliveries. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Reported production of refined metal was down by 4.7 kt, compared with the first seven months of 2006 and DLA deliveries were 8.2 kt bringing the total availability to 208.6 kt. Production fell in Indonesia, particularly after the government clampdown on illegal mining at the end of last year reduced the amount of tin available but has recovered some of the lost ground in the last quarter. Global demand totalled 208.5 kt which represented a decrease of 11.4 kt compared with January to July 2006 with reduced consumption in Japan and lack of significant growth in China responsible for most of the market weakness. At the end of July, LME stocks recovered to 13.7 kt which compares with the end December 2006 figure of 13.0 kt. Tin mine production was 189.5 kt which was virtually unchanged from the January to July 2006 total. All of the increase was recorded in China. In July, refined tin production was 30.6 kt and consumption was 31.5 kt.