Alcoa cuts 2007 alumina market surplus forecast…

Alcoa has revised down its estimate for the global alumina market surplus in 2007. From a range of balanced to 1-million tonne surplus, it says it is now expects a range of balanced to 500,000t surplus. This is a function of slower-than-expected ramp-up of brownfield expansions and higher Chinese metal production. Chief executive Alain Belda said that this revision of the company's forecast was supported by the spot market for alumina, where prices have exceeded $375/t. "The Chinese are not moving as fast with alumina production as with their smelter production, while bauxite costs (including transport) are going through the roof and there is some difficulty getting alumina out of Indonesia at the moment," he said. Alcoa's own alumina production dropped to 3.775 million tonnes in Q3 2007 from 3.799 million tonnes in Q2 2007 and from 3.890 million tonnes in Q2 2006. The decrease was largely due to the impact of Hurricane Dean on the company's Jamaican operations, it said. Production should increase by 2-3% again in Q4 of this year, it added.