POLL-Aluminium market to stay in surplus for some years

* Copper may be in supply deficit by H1 2010 * Smelter restarts may keep zinc in surplus longer * Most expect nickel market in deficit in 2010 By Karen Norton and Pratima Desai LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - The aluminium market will stay in surplus for the foreseeable future as new projects start producing and high prices encourage restarts of idled capacity, a Reuters survey showed. The survey carried out over the past two weeks also showed six out of 10 analysts expect copper demand to start to outstrip supply next year, while four expect to see a deficit in 2011. Five out of 10 analysts expect aluminium to see a "sustained period of surplus". One expects to see a sustainable deficit in 2011, two in 2012 and one in 2013, while another predicts a balanced market in 2011. "We don't see an aluminium deficit in any of our forecast years," said Macquarie Bank analyst Max Layton. "It's very difficult to find enough cuts globally to balance the market despite quite a robust rebound in demand being assumed." Aluminium demand has been pummelled by the sharp contraction in the key automotive and construction sectors. Even when it recovers it will continue to be outstripped by supply from new low-cost smelters and restarts in China and the West. Analysts said producer discipline had begun to break down. "We're beginning to see more restarts, price levels are close to $2,000 a tonne and the vast majority of smelters can more than break even," said David Wilson, director of metals research at Societe Generale. COPPER SUPPLY WOES In contrast, copper demand is expected to start to outstrip supply next year as problems at existing mines and a shortage of new capacity continue to plague the market. Half of the six predicted deficits for 2010 will emerge in the first half as demand levels pick up, albeit not spectacularly. "Producers are finding it a challenge to bring on new capacity and to produce at existing facilities," said Calyon analyst Robin Bhar. Copper has been hit by a series of production problems this year, including at Chile's Escondida. Output at Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, fell sharply in the last quarter from a year earlier because of technical problems. The remaining four analysts surveyed predict copper will be in deficit in 2011 at the latest, with most pinning that move down to the first half of the year. The nickel market could move into deficit as early as the final quarter of this year, according to Deutsche Bank. But three out of the five surveyed plumped for 2010 as the turning point for the market, while RBS predicted 2012. Five out of seven analysts polled for zinc expect the market to move into deficit next year, with two predicting it will occur as early as the second quarter. But, as with aluminium, some voiced concerns that high prices could lure smelters into restarting and keep the market in surplus for longer. "Christmas has come early for producers. High prices will bring restarts forward and could put off for a bit longer the time when the market will go into deficit," said Stephen Briggs, a metals analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets. RBS predicts a deficit in 2010, but Briggs said there was a danger that a deficit might be deferred until 2011. In lead there was less consensus. Independent consultant Angus MacMillan said strong seasonal demand for replacement batteries might be enough to tip the market into balance later this year. Two analysts predicted lead could move into deficit in 2010 and two others said the following year. But RBS said it might be delayed until 2012. "We don't like lead for the recovery story," Briggs said. (Editing by Sue Thomas)