ALUMINIUM-Major market developments in August

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Rising output and a steady build-up of stocks will keep pressure on aluminium prices near term, though the downside may be limited, some analysts say. Will Adams of Basemetals.com expected the market to find a base around $2,500, with potential for a short-covering rally to take prices up to $2,750. He added that aluminium would trade in a $2,550-2,750 range in the next couple of months. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-months price was last indicated at $2,602/12 a tonne, around its lowest since early February. Neil Buxton, managing director of GFMS Consulting said he remained cautious on prices, citing among other things the firmer U.S. dollar and the gentle upwards trajectory in inventories. But he still thought the market was near the bottom of its trading range. Independent consultant Angus MacMillan, meanwhile, said the market looked weak and expected prices to fall further. He saw $2,500 as the immediate downside target, but conceded that it would not be one-way traffic lower. He said recent production losses would be offset by new smelting capacity coming on stream, particularly in China. Below are detailed some of the more significant recent developments in production, stocks and prices that may influence the direction of the market in the remainder of 2008. PRODUCTION: August 28 - Some Jamaican bauxite and alumina companies scaled down but did not stop operations as Tropical Storm Gustav ploughed across the Caribbean island. August 22 - Birac, owner of Bosnia's sole alumina refinery, moved into profit in the first half of the year after completing a restructuring of the plant. Since 2006, the refinery has operated using only 50 percent of its installed capacity of 600,000 tonnes because of low global alumina prices and the high cost of electricity and gas needed in its production. August 22 - Alcoa Inc said it has set dates for the layoff of about 300 employees at its Rockdale, Texas, aluminium smelter where the company has idled half of its production due to power supply issues. In addition, the company said about 100 contract workers would also be laid off. The plant was partially shut in June because of ongoing supply issues with Luminant's on-site power generating unit, which have exposed the plant to uneconomical power prices, Alcoa said. August 20 - Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus said it entered into exclusive negotiations with Klesch & Company to sell its two aluminium smelters in the Netherlands and Germany. It follows an unsuccessful attempt in December to sell the plants. At that time Corus said it had signed a non-binding letter of intent to sell the two plants to U.S. company American Industrial Acquisition Corporation (AIAC). August 20 - Daily average primary aluminium output in July was 70,000 tonnes compared with 70,400 in June and 68,000 in July 2007, provisional figures from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) show. Total production in July (31 days) was 2.170 million tonnes compared with a revised 2.111 million in June (30 days) and 2.107 million in July 2007. China produced 1.168 million tonnes in July, down from 1.172 million in June. August 19 - India's National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO) is again facing coal shortages which could disrupt output at its units if supplies worsen, although operations are currently normal, top company officials said. State-run NALCO has been plagued by coal shortages in recent months and a company official said it was planning to import 330,000 tonnes of coal, of which nearly half was already ordered. The firm's Damanjodi alumina refinery in the eastern state of Orissa resumed normal production of 4,500 tonnes a day early this month after output was halved in late July because of a coal shortage. August 19 - Power-hungry Chinese aluminium smelters are bracing themselves for higher electricity prices in September after Beijing's second on-grid rate rise in two months, a move that may force older smelters to cut output or sell out. August 18 - Top thermal power plants in China's Shanxi province, a major aluminium producer, have resumed operations as coal stocks rise, local media said, in the first signs that China's worst power crisis in four years is easing. Northeast China's Liaoning province has lifted power rationing after coal inventories at its key thermal generators rose above critical levels, official Xinhua said. The report did not say if rationing had been lifted in Shanxi. August 18 - The annual rate of primary U.S. aluminium production increased 3.2 percent to 2,654,692 tonnes in July from 2,572,814 tonnes in July 2007, but was down 3.1 percent from June's annual rate of 2,738,754 tonnes, the Aluminum Association said. For the year through July, the annual production rate rose 10.1 percent to 2,747,899 tonnes from a 2,495,689-tonne rate in the 2007 period. August 16 - Ghana's president said his country had received offers in excess of $200 million for a "partnership" role in the 200,000 tpy VALCO aluminium smelter. Ghana bought back the final 10 percent of the plant from Alcoa in June for $2 million, having previously paid Kaiser Aluminum $18 million for its 90 percent share in the smelter, which has been idle since March 2007 due to power shortages. Ghana plans to relaunch the industry with a new mine and alumina refinery. August 15 - Rio Tinto Ltd said it has sharply reduced output at its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia after a blocked pipeline was discovered, but did not see any impact to aluminium production. The outage, which began on July 29, would last until the end of August. The plant normally yields 4,000 tonnes per day of alumina. August 14 - Brazil's Vale inaugurated a $1.1 billion expansion to the world's largest alumina refinery to push the plant's output up by nearly half to 6.3 million tpy. August 14 - China produced 7,735,300 tonnes of primary aluminium in the first seven months of 2008, up 13.8 percent from year earlier levels. Output of alumina rose by 20.5 percent over the same period to 13,231,000 tonnes. August 11 - Aluminium Corp of China Ltd said it would not move ahead with a plan to expand alumina capacity at a joint venture in Guangxi because of high building costs and weak prices. August 8 - Britain's Vedanta Resources Plc was given permission to mine bauxite in hills held sacred by an ancient tribe. Hurdles blocking the project in eastern Orissa state were cleared by the Supreme court despite protests. Vedanta wants to dig open-cast mines in the Niyamgiri hills to feed the refinery it has already built there. August 8 - Hundreds of workers at the West Indies Alumina Company alumina refinery in Jamaica's south-central parish of Manchester have agreed to a new three-year wage deal with the company, union officials said. PRICES Downward pressure in aluminium prices, which became evident in July, continued through to mid-August before there was a brief respite. A broad sell-off in the base metals complex was exacerbated by ample and rising aluminium stocks, and falling oil prices, given the metal's energy-intensive production process. The market recovered to $2,860 from a low of $2,731 reached on August 15, but downward pressure soon reasserted itself. Three-months aluminium prices ended the month at $2,714 from $2,974 at end-July. Aluminium has weakened further in early September and is trading around its lowest levels since February. In July, the twice-yearly Reuters base metals price poll put the median average for the LME cash aluminium price at $2,948 a tonne in 2008 and $3,150 in 2009. A January poll generated forecasts of $2,506 and $2,540 a tonne in 2008 and 2009 respectively. In 2007 the price averaged $2,665 a tonne. STOCKS Total exchange stocks were 1,373,074 tonnes at the end of August, up from 1,327,655 tonnes a month earlier. Of that total, 1,169,650 tonnes were held in LME warehouses, compared with 1,124,225 tonnes at the end of July. LME stocks have continued to rise in early September and are at their highest levels since April 2004. Total visible stocks, including latest International Aluminium Institute (IAI) unwrought stocks were 2,956,074 tonnes, equating to 28-1/2 days of consumption. Estimated aluminium stocks at the Japanese ports of Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka totalled 202,300 tonnes at the end of July, down 0.2 percent from a month earlier, an official at Marubeni Corp said. The estimate also marked a 17 percent drop from the year ago figure of 243,200 tonnes.