ALUMINIUM-Major market developments in August

LONDON, Sept 9 - Aluminium prices may have some upside potential in the next few months, as demand starts to recover, but they will not return to the recent highs, some analysts say. In early 2010, some expect rising supplies will be key. Most believe that demand is improving, but only gradually. "There's much talk of demand picking up, but it's clear that consumption is well down on last year. You've got to think that the upside potential for prices is limited in the next few months," said independent consultant Angus MacMillan. At 0812 GMT the London Metal Exchange three-months aluminium price was indicated at $1,893/95, well down on levels above $2,100 seen last month, when they were at their highest since last November. "People are generally a little bit bearish on prices. That doesn't mean we'll see $1,300 again, but we definitely won't see the mid-August levels again," said Massimo Rossi, a senior analyst at industry consultants CRU Group. Prices could move higher near term as demand recovered, particularly as a lot of metal in LME warehouses was tied up in financing deals and not immediately available to the market, said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital. But she saw a surplus building quickly early next year as smelter production caught up with and overtook consumption. Below are some of the more significant recent developments in production, stocks and prices that may influence the direction of the market in 2009. PRODUCTION: Aug 26 - China's Aluminium Corp of China Ltd <2600.HK> <601600.SS> said it expects China to produce 13.2 million tonnes of primary aluminium this year. An executive said China had restarted 1.28 million tonnes of idle primary aluminium capacity and 3.48 million tonnes of idle alumina capacity between the second quarter and Aug. 10 due to firm prices. [ID:nHKG4989] Aug 25 - China's Chalco expects its alumina output this year to fall 11 percent from 2008 to 8.0 million tonnes, a senior executive said. Chalco also said it expected to produce 3.4 million tonnes of aluminium, up 5 percent from a year earlier. The company also said it had restarted 670,000 tonnes of alumina production capacity and 310,000 tonnes of aluminium capacity. [ID:nSHA49732] Aug 20 - Global daily average primary aluminium output excluding China fell to 63,100 tonnes in July from 63,300 tonnes in June, provisional figures from the International Aluminium Institute showed. [ID:nLK650964] Aug 20 - China's primary aluminium production rose to 1.088 million tonnes in July from 1.029 million tonnes in June, provisional figures from the International Aluminium Institute showed. In July 2008 China's aluminium output was 1.168 million tonnes and total output last year was 13.105 million tonnes, the IAI said. [ID:nLK478087] Aug 19 - UC RUSAL will expedite work on a new hydro-electric plant to limit output losses during the four years of repairs it expects will be needed at its main Siberian power supplier. UC RUSAL says 500,000 tonnes of aluminium output, equivalent to 11 percent of last year's production, are under threat after a fatal accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya dam. It is building another utility, Boguchany, with state firm RusHydro . [ID:nLJ559272] Aug 19 - Ormet Corp said it reduced output to four of six potlines through 2009 at its 266,000 tpy aluminium smelter in Hannibal, Ohio. It did not say when production would be slowed to four potlines, but only five of six potlines have been running since May 20. [ID:nN19629056] Aug 18 - India's National Aluminium Co has put on hold commissioning of the expanded alumina capacity due to local problems, its chairman said. The company had plans to raise its alumina refining capacity to 2.1 million tpy from 1.6 million. [ID:nDEL487008] Aug 11 - China produced 6,745,600 tonnes of primary aluminium in the first seven months of this year, down 10.6 percent from a year earlier. Output of alumina fell by 6.9 percent over the same period to 12,325,600 tonnes. [ID:nAPI000612] Aug 11 - Century Aluminum Co said it recently recalled 28 employees to work 21 refurbished pots at its Hawesville, Kentucky primary aluminium smelter. The company had allowed some broken pots to go idle, but has since decided to repair them because it is more efficient to operate with a full line, it said. The smelter, which has a near 250,000 tpy capacity, has five potlines, but only four are currently operating. [ID:nN11541619] Aug 11 - State-owned Emirates Aluminium plans to ramp up output at a giant new aluminium plant to over 700,000 tonnes by the end of 2010, a company executive said. [ID:nLB715701] Aug 7 - China's Bosai Group is doubling capacity of alumina and aluminium in the first half of next year. The firm is building a facility in Sichuan province to boost its alumina capacity to 500,000 tpy in April 2010 from 200,000 tpy. [ID:nHKG40192] PRICES Aluminium prices ended August virtually unchanged from month earlier levels at $1,895.50 a tonne, belying the moves during the period. Early last month, three-months prices surged to $2,115 a tonne, their highest since last November on increased risk appetite. While the market pulled back below $1,900 soon after that, it set its sights higher again around mid-month on strength across the metals complex. The move was triggered by growth optimism after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy was showing signs of levelling out. But demand worries regained the upper hand after that and hence prices have maintained that softer tone in early September. In July, the twice-yearly Reuters base metals price poll [MET/POLL] put the median average for the LME cash aluminium price at $1,499 a tonne, compared with the January forecast of $1,604.70 a tonne.