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Aluminium seen $1,950/T on average in 2013-Chinalco exec

Monday, Oct 22, 2012
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  Abundant stocks of aluminium and lukewarm demand in the global market may cap prices on the London Metal Exchange at about $1,950 per tonne on average next year from just above $2,000 expected this year, a senior Chinalco official said.

  Yang Xiaowu, director of futures department at Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), the top aluminium producer in China, said prices of the metal may continue to move within a narrow range in coming months and that would reduce trading interests from investors and speculators on the contracts both on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

  "The market may go back to the fundamentals next year,' Yang told Reuters on the sidelines of China Metal Seminar in London on Wednesday. "Aluminium prices for 2013 are not as optimistic as copper."

  High inventories typically are considered a bearish factor for prices when fundamentals are the focus. Aluminium stocks monitored by the LME stood at 5.058 million tonnes on Wednesday, versus a record of of 5.126 million tonnes seen in February this year.

  Consumption of aluminium in developed countries next year may be similar to this year, Yang said.

  For China, the world's top consumer and producer of aluminium, he expects the country's consumption to rise 8 to 9 percent in 2013 from 7 to 8 percent estimated for this year. He did not provide the consumption amounts.

  Demand from investments in infrastructure, transport projects, power cables and wires and packaging would support higher consumption growth next year, Yang said.

  Although the Chinese demand next year could be better than this year, domestic production would also rise, adding to a surplus in the domestic market, he said.

  China recently approved 60 infrastructure projects worth more than $150 billion, fuelling investor hopes that the world's second-largest economy may get a lift in the fourth quarter of this year and beyond.

  State-backed research firm Antaike had forecast growth in real aluminium consumption this year at 8.2 percent to 21.7 million tonnes, compared with 14.6 percent growth in 2011 and a rise of 26.7 percent in 2010.

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