Marubeni sees global aluminium deficit in 2013

 

 

Marubeni, Japan's fifth-biggest trading company, expects the three-month LME aluminium price to start rising in the middle of 2012 in anticipation of the easing of a supply glut, with the median price rising to $2,800 a tonne in 2013, up from an estimated $2,400 in 2011. The benchmark aluminium price now hovers at around $2,030 on the London Metal Exchange.

 

 

Marubeni expects the European debt woes to ease off early next year.

 

 

"A rapid expansion of smelter capacity in China, the Middle East and India will cause a supply glut in 2012," Takeshi Kondo, general manager at Marubeni, said in the company's presentation of its annual outlook on the market. "But electricity and other issues will restrain capacity expansion in China, helping to tighten the market."

 

 

Marubeni expects term aluminium premiums, the amount Japanese buyers pay above LME cash prices, to range from $110-135 in 2013, rising from the $110-130 range in 2012 with a recovery of the global economy.

 

 

Marubeni expects global aluminium demand to grow 7.3 percent both in 2012 and 2013, but supply to rise 7 percent in 2012 followed by a 5.1 percent gain in 2013.

 

 

In China alone, the market will see a deficit of 10,000 tonnes in 2011, with the deficit widening to 50,000 tonnes in 2011 and to 500,000 tonnes in 2013, Marubeni said.

 

 

Japanese trading houses are boosting investment in aluminium smelting facilities, betting on steady demand growth in Asia.

 

 

Marubeni said last month it would spend about $180 million to double its stake in Aluminerie Alouette, North America's biggest aluminium smelter, to 13.33 percent to tap growing demand in emerging economies.

 

 

Sumitomo Corp, Japan's No.3 trading house, also plans to boost its aluminium business in Asia as its Malaysian aluminium affiliate Press Metal plans to double its annual capacity to 240,000 tonnes by 2014.