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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai stocks down again

Saturday, May 12, 2007
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Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 7,295t to 33,807t in the two-week period to Thursday. (The SHFE didn't report stocks last week because of the national holidays in China.)

Registered stocks have fallen continuously from their recent March peak of 99,377t, although they are still showing a small (Western) year-to-date increase of 15,225t.

Recent visible Chinese stock figures raise more questions than they answer. With production of metal still booming and exports of primary still falling, the country's apparent consumption seems to be running off the scale. We're aware, however, of concerns that there may be a large unreported stock build going on in China, which is not being reflected in events on the SHFE.

Meanwhile, the LME stocks headline figure continues to track sideways. Yesterday's slight pick-up in arrival rates was enough to generate a modest net increase, partly reversing the net declines of the previous two days.

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