Stocks of unwrought aluminium held by producers outside of China fell by 35,000t to 1.551 million tonnes at the end of May, according to the latest figures from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).
The decline in May does not conform to the pattern seen in most recent years. Producer stocks rose in May in 2003, in 2004 and in 2005, although last year saw a modest 10,000t decline.
All the IAI’s geographical categories saw producer stocks decline last month but the two most pronounced falls were in North America and Europe.
In North America, producer inventories fell by 14,000t last month, bringing the year-to-date decline to 33,000t.
In Europe, they fell by 11,000t last month, bringing the year-to-date decline to 72,000t, which incidentally has been the major driver in the overall 70,000t year-to-date fall in global producer inventories.
Moreover, European stocks at 540,000t remain extremely low in absolute terms by historical standards.
Total Stocks
Factoring the latest producer stocks figures into the global reported stocks picture shows that the latter—comprising the world’s big three exchanges, Japanese port stocks and producer stocks---fell by 51,000t in May to 2.642 million tonnes.
However, stocks at the end of May were still showing a year-to-date net increase of just over 49,300t.
That reflects the 135,000t year-to-date build in LME stocks—mainly thanks to rapid increases in the Jan-Feb period—and to a lesser extent a continued year-to-date increase in Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks—up by 5,938t from the start of January, even if they are now well off their post-Lunar New Year peak.
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