ANALYSIS-US aluminum imports surge on automotive outlook

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - A surge in U.S. aluminum imports in May reflects a budding optimism in the automotive industry, which if early signs of recovery bear out, should continue to drive inbound shipments of the light-weight metal. Data from the U.S. International Trade Commission on Monday showed May aluminum imports grew to 215,876 tonnes from 171,703 tonnes in April, an increase of nearly 26 percent. "If we can see a pick-up in auto demand, that should help imports," said Sterling Smith, an analyst for Country Hedging Inc. in Inner Grove Heights, Minnesota. Aluminum imports for the first five months of the year jumped 51 percent to 912,9632 tonnes from 604,736 tonnes in the same period of 2008. Demand for aluminum should receive a boost as manufacturers build lighter passenger vehicles to boost fuel efficiency and cut U.S. auto emissions. "With the automakers getting all of their problems resolved, that may help demand a little bit in that maybe folks will not be afraid to buy a General Motors car right now." Barclays Capital economists expect U.S. automakers to build 1 million more vehicles in the third quarter than they did the previous three months, according to a research note by Barclays analyst Nicholas Snowdon on Tuesday. Snowdon predicted that would boost global aluminum consumption for the same period by 148,000 tonnes, or 1.5 percent. "The results point to significant additions to global demand levels," Snowdon wrote. "It is also likely that auto companies have already begun restocking their metal requirements." That should ease aluminum stocks at London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses which hit another record level above 4.4 million tonnes on Tuesday. A typical U.S. vehicle contains 326 lbs of aluminum. The surprisingly strong U.S. data runs counter to that of Japan, where the latest data showed a severe demand downturn still reducing imports of the metal used heavily by the transport and packaging industries. Aluminum stocks held at the three key Japanese ports of Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka amounted to 207,600 tonnes at the end of June, down 35,700 tonnes or 14.7 percent from a month earlier, trading house Marubeni Corp said on Monday. Japanese imports are down by 50 percent or more so far this year. COPPER TO SEE-SAW; NICKEL WEAK U.S. May copper imports eased to 52,617 tonnes from 53,942 tonnes the previous month, with greater volatility in the figures expected in the coming months until end-users get a better grip on economic conditions, analysts said. "It's going to be a see-saw for a while," Country Hedging's Smith said of the imports. Ralph Preston, futures analyst with HeritageWestFutures.com in San Diego, California, agreed, adding that future inbound shipments of the economically sensitive copper will be influenced by economic perceptions. "It appears we are not out of the woods just yet," Preston said. "Any kind of positive or negative economic numbers are going to play into it ... they will be tentative." The uncertain economic outlook also affected the inflows of steel-making ingredient nickel, which sank nearly 50 percent to 4,975 tonnes in May. "The supply/demand numbers are still pretty negative," said Bart Melek, Global Commodity Strategist with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. "Demand is still depressed and we still have considerable surpluses." Stocks of nickel in LME warehouses stood at 109,092 tonnes as of Tuesday, down from a late-April peak at 114,474 tonnes. (Reporting by Chris Kelly; Editing by David Gregorio)