Vale, Alcoa: Mining Winners & Losers

Saturday, Oct 31, 2009
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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of the big three iron-ore extractors surged Thursday after one of Vale's(VALE Quote) top managers made bold statements about economic recovery and further robust demand for raw materials, especially out of China. Other tailwinds blew mining stocks higher Thursday, not the least of which was stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. GDP, interpreted wide and far as a signal of a gathering rebound in the world economy. Buoyed though it was by lots of government stimulus, including the cash-for-clunkers program, the GDP figure not only drove U.S. equities higher Thursday but also shares of companies in the so-called emerging markets, including Vale's Brazil. The company's New York-listed American depositary receipts gained 10.2%, or $2.46, to $26.68. Volume surpassed 43 million ADRs; daily average turnover in the name is about 25 million. In a conference call to discuss Vale's third quarter earnings, its finance chief, Fabio Barbosa, said, "We have no expectations of a reversal of demand." Other Barbosa soundbites, according to a Reuters report on the conference call: "The global economic recovery is likely to be sustainable." "We continue to be extremely confident in the future of our company." "This has nothing to do with speculative demand; this is the result of actual growth taking place in carbon steel output, combined with a replacement of domestic ore for imported ore." In the last comment, Barbosa was referring to the opinions of some market observers, who believe speculation and Chinese stockpiling of raw materials have created a kind of false demand for raw materials like copper, iron ore and coal. On Wednesday, Vale, the biggest of the big three iron-ore miners, reported earnings of about $1.68 billion for the quarter, down 65% from a year ago, when commodities prices were still caught in a bubble before the full effect of the financial collapse and recession laid markets low. The company's Australian rivals, BHP Billiton(BHP Quote) and Rio Tinto(RTP Quote), saw their equities trade higher Thursday as well. The ADRs of the former rose 3.7% to $69.14, while those of the latter jumped 6.5% to $185.54. Investors poured into commodities-related stocks in general Thursday following several days of equally steep declines, particularly in shares of metals and mining concerns. The moves to the upside and downside were both triggered by macroeconomic data, demonstrating how volatile the markets have become, especially the dollar-sensitive commodities names, here on the cusp of possible recovery -- or the widely feared double dip. Gold names exploded during the session as the price of the yellow metal itself gained ground and the dollar weakened. Also, two of the gold industry's biggest miners reported better-than-expected third quarter results: Newmont(NEM Quote) mining and Barrick Gold(ABX Quote), whose shares gained 3.6% and 7% respectively. Elsewhere, copper and gold producer Freeport McMoran(FCX Quote) saw its stock advance 6.4%. Shares of aluminum smelter Alcoa(AA Quote) spiked 9%, while the Canadian diversified miner Teck Resources(TCK Quote) saw its stock price advanced 7%.

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