BHP most likely bidder for Global Alumina: analyst

Global Alumina Corp. revealed yesterday that it is in talks with a potential buyer, and Jennings Capital analyst Ron Coll thinks one name clearly tops the list: BHP Billiton PLC. BHP is in a joint venture with Global Alumina to develop a refinery in the Republic of Guinea. The other partners are Dubai Aluminum Company Ltd. and Mubadala Development Company PJSC. Both of them are potential bidders as well, but BHP is the most obvious, since it would be the operator of the refinery under the joint venture terms. "BHP would be the ones that have the most to gain," Mr. Coll said in an interview, noting that Dubai Aluminum is a strong possibility as well. Another possible bidder is China Aluminum Group, which has an off-take agreement with Global Alumina.There is also an outside chance that a player who is not currently involved, such as Rio Tinto PLC, could be making a run at Global Alumina. But Mr. Coll considers that less likely because of the right of refusal options of the other joint venture partners. "It would be difficult for third parties or outsiders to come in. But it's always possible," he said. The proposed takeout price is $2.65 a share. Global Alumina traded below that level yesterday, suggesting that investors think a bidding war is unlikely.